Mardi 22 juillet 2014 2 22 /07 /Juil /2014 08:18

The Sigma Whole MArket Index slightly declined on Monday (after Friday strong session). The market remains above a key short term support (pink horizontal line). Nevertheless, recent price action looks like a head and shoulders pattern.

 

SWM20140721-copie-2.JPG

 

The EuroStoxx and the S&P Mid Cap 400 are on strong support, it is very important they remain above those supports.

 

chartestox20140721.JPG

chartsc20140721.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is right on its zero line, it will be interesting to monitor if it is able to stay in positive territory in coming sessions.

 

stmodel20140721.JPG

 

The ST model uplifted its stop on the EuroStoxx:

 

stestox20140721.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1925, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3817, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4244, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3096, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: long at 9738.15 (stop @ 9273, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10306, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Samedi 19 juillet 2014 6 19 /07 /Juil /2014 14:35

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a big white candle on Friday. It seems the market validated the 'c' wave scenario rather than the 3 of A.

 

 

SWM20140718.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Swing was at '5' on Friday. As the Trend Level (TL) was at '1' on Thursday, we got a confirmed buy signal.

We are not convinced by this signal, but we don't want to discuss the results of the model. The only to test the accuracy of the model is by implementing each new signal.

 

stmodel20140718.JPG

 

So, we closed all our short positions and we opened some long positions:

 

stibex20140718.JPG

stestox20140718.JPG

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stcac20140718.JPG

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stspx20140718.JPG

 

CAC: 4526.78 - 4348.16 = 178.62 (gain)

DAX: 9936.16 - 9738.15 = 198.01 (gain)

IBEX: will be close on Monday

EStox: 3247.67 - 3174.33 = 73.34

SPX: 1976.19 - 1978.44 = -2.25 (loss)

NDX: 3910.97 - 3940.03 = -29.06 (loss)

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1925, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3817, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4244, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3080, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: long at 9738.15 (stop @ 9273, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: to be closed on Monday

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 18 juillet 2014 5 18 /07 /Juil /2014 08:25

The Sigma Whole Market Index was under heavy pressure on Thursday. Looking at the size of the black candle, there is no doubt it was an impulsive decline.

As the Sigma Whole MArket Index printed a new short term low, there is now 2 possibilities:

  1. We remain in a medium term uptrend and this is a short term correction (in 'abc) and we are now in 'c'. So, we shouldn't be far from the bottom
  2. The medium term uptrend is over and we are now in a medium term correction: ABC (with A subdivided in 1-2-3-4-5, B in abc and C in 1-2-3-4-5)

So, even we are in 'c' of a short term correction or in 3 of A of a medium term correction. It will be very important to monitor the size of current downleg. If it is highly impulsive, there is more chance it is a '3' of A rather than a 'c'.

 

SWM20140717.JPG

 

Both the Swing and the Power Level were at '1', telling us the decline was impulsive.

 

stmodel20140717.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: short at 1976.19 (stop @ 2017, 3pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: short at 3910.97 (stop @ 4010, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 4526.78 (stop @ 4494, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EStox: short at 3242.67 (stop @ 3274, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: short at 9936.15 (stop @ 9972, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: short at 11096.6 (stop @ 10877, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 17 juillet 2014 4 17 /07 /Juil /2014 07:30

The Sigma Whole Market Index gained 0.4%.The index retraced roughyl 50% of recent loss and the pullback scenario (b wave) remains valid at this stage. Some indexes are printing new highs (nasdaq 100, DJI, DJT,...) while other are unable to do it (Nasdaq composite, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Russell 2000, ..). Once again this underlines a major divergence in the market.

The 'b' wave scenario looks perfect on some European indexes (IBEX, DAX, Eurostoxx, CAC, ...)

 

SWM20140716.JPG

 

There is no new information in our indicators.

 

stmodel20140716.JPG

 

here is no change in our portfolio:

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: short at 1976.19 (stop @ 2017, 3pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: short at 3910.97 (stop @ 4010, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 4526.78 (stop @ 4494, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EStox: short at 3242.67 (stop @ 3274, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: short at 9936.15 (stop @ 9972, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: short at 11096.6 (stop @ 10877, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 16 juillet 2014 3 16 /07 /Juil /2014 09:38

The Sigma Whole MArket Index slightly declined on Tuesday. This is what we were expectiong. Now, we need an impulse to the downside in order to validate our scenario.

 

SWM20140715.JPG

 

Looking at some European and US indexes, there is no doubt the weakness was back in the market on Tuesday.

 

chartSC20140715.JPG

chartRUT20140715.JPG

chartestox20140715.JPG

chartcac20140715.JPG

chartibex20140715.JPG

 

There is no change in our portfolio:

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: short at 1976.19 (stop @ 2017, 3pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: short at 3910.97 (stop @ 4010, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 4526.78 (stop @ 4494, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EStox: short at 3242.67 (stop @ 3274, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: short at 9936.15 (stop @ 9972, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: short at 11096.6 (stop @ 10877, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 15 juillet 2014 2 15 /07 /Juil /2014 10:25

After last week's decline, we were expecting a bounce back (which is under way now). The market enjoyed a nice day on Monday and, if we are right, the rebound should end by Tuesday or Wednesday. If the Sigma Whole MArket Index is able to print new highs in coming days, then our scenario is wrong.

 

SWM20140714.JPG

 

The 3 indexes we want to focus on duriong this rebound are the Sigma Whole Market Index, the US Small Caps 600 and the Russell 2000. For the time being, recent action looks like a rebound.

 

chartRUT20140714.JPG

chartSC20140714.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index was able to move in positive territory. If we are right, it should move back in negative territory by the end of the week and the Swing should decline to '1' or '2' during this move (negative impulse)

 

stmodel20140714.JPG

 

There is no change in our portfolio:

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: short at 1976.19 (stop @ 2017, 3pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: short at 3910.97 (stop @ 4010, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 4526.78 (stop @ 4494, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EStox: short at 3242.67 (stop @ 3274, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: short at 9936.15 (stop @ 9972, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: short at 11096.6 (stop @ 10877, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Dimanche 13 juillet 2014 7 13 /07 /Juil /2014 10:59

The Sigma Whole Market Index bounced back on Friday. We are not surprised because this is what we were expecting (see what we wrote on Friday). We believe this bounce back should continue early next week. If we are right, the market should be under pressure by the end of next week.

 

SWM20140711.JPG

 

The Sigma trend Index remains in negative territory but it is very close to its zero line. So, we can't say the trend is 'really' negative.

 

stmodel20140711.JPG

 

There is no change in our positions:

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: short at 1976.19 (stop @ 2017, 3pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: short at 3910.97 (stop @ 4010, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 4526.78 (stop @ 4494, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EStox: short at 3242.67 (stop @ 3274, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: short at 9936.15 (stop @ 9972, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: short at 11096.6 (stop @ 10877, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
Ecrire un commentaire / Write a comment - Voir les 0 commentaires

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NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, COMMODITIES, OPTIONS, BONDS, FUTURES, OR BULLION. ACTIONS YOU UNDERTAKE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF OUR ANALYSIS, OPINION OR ADVERTISEMENT ON THIS SITE ARE YOUR SOLE RESPONSIBILITY.

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