Jeudi 21 août 2014 4 21 /08 /Août /2014 09:04

The Mid Cap400 was able to break its horizontal resistance but the Russell hasn't been able to do it. Wait and see...

 

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chartRUT20140820.JPG

 

The Nasqdaq100 is losing some momentum but it is not surprising after the strong rally we got.

 

chartNDX20140820.JPG

 

The Sigma Whole MArket Index continues its advance and we continue to believe this market wants to retest previous high.

 

SWM20140820.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is now at '15', we are still far from the key '34' level. => no major risk of reversal at current level.

 

stmodel20140820.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels for some positions:

 

stspx20140820.JPG

stndx20140820.JPG

stibex20140820.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1908, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3819, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4090, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2963, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9002, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10097)

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 20 août 2014 3 20 /08 /Août /2014 08:16

It is important to notice that some major indexes are right below a strong resistance. This situation creates some short term uncertainties: break up or roll down?

 

chartSC20140819.JPG

chartMID20140819.JPG

chartCAC20140819.JPG

chartEStox20140819.JPG

 

Nevertheless, when we have a look at the Sigma Whole MArket Index and the Sigma European Market Index, we can notice we are not so close to major resistance: we still have some upside.

 

SWM20140819.JPG

SEI20140819.JPG

 

On top of that, when we have a look at some large European indexes such as the Stoxx600, the Eurotop 100 and the All Europe800, we can notice that those indexes have already broken their resistances.

 

chartALLEU20140819.JPG

chartETOP20140819.JPG

chartStoxx20140819.JPG

So, this situation leads us to believe that the market has an higher probability to climb than to roll down.

 

The Sigma Trend Index continues to climb (now at '14') but we are still far from the key '34' level. So, we don't consider there is a meaningful risk of reversal at this stage.

 

stmodel20140819.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop level on some indexes:

 

stspx20140819.JPG

stndx20140819.JPG

stdax20140819.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1905, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3817, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4090, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2963, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9002, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10088)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 19 août 2014 2 19 /08 /Août /2014 09:43

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains very well oriented. Recent rally seems to strong to be a 'simple' rebound in a downtrend. The move is clearly impulsive and it seems the market wants (at least) to retest its previous high.

 

SWM20140818.JPG

Looking at the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10yr T-Notes, we can see that the green horizontal support did its job and the market found support on it .We are now back in the middle of the uptrend and there is no sign of reversal at this stage.

 

bdseq20140818.JPG

The Nasdaq is very strong but the Russell 2000, the Small Cap 600 and the Mid Cap 400 remain in a weak rebound pattern. There are some rooms before those (weak) indexes reach their (blue) resistance.

 

chartNDX20140818.JPG

chartRUT20140818.JPG

chartMID20140818.JPG

chartSC20140818.JPG

Looking at Europe, we can notice that most indexes are just below strong resistances. So, if we get a breakout of those resistances, we should get a nice (short term) rally from here. As the Sigma Whole MArket Index is well oriented, we believe there are more chance to break those resistances  than to roll down.

 

chartCAC20140818.JPG

chartIBEX20140818.JPG

chartEStox20140818.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is well in positive territory. The Swing was at '4', telling us the move remains impulsive.

 

stmodel20140818.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on both the SPX and the NDX:

 

stspx20140818.JPG

stndx20140818.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1898, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3810, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4090, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2963, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 8978, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10088)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Dimanche 17 août 2014 7 17 /08 /Août /2014 23:15

The Sigma Whole Market Index hit the pink horizontal resistance on Friday and sharply reversed due to tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The technical picture remains positive on the Sigma Whole MArket Index and as the tensions didn't escalate during the week-end, we will probably resume the uptrend.

 

SWM20140815.JPG

 

Nevertheless, it is important to notice that this rally is a weak one. Ok, the Nasdaq reached its all time high on Friday but other key indexes such as the Russell 2000, The Mid Cap400 and the Small Cap600 have been very weak during current rebound.

 

chartNDX20140815.JPG

chartRUT20140815.JPG

chartMID20140815.JPG

chartSC20140815.JPG

 

Looking at the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx50, there is no doubt that current rebound is weak. It will be important to see if we can get some strength early next week or the market will quickly be in trouble.

 

chartCAC20140815.JPG

chartestox20140815.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index closed the week in positive territory, and this is something positive for the market.

 

stmodel20140815.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on all our positions:

 

stspx20140815.JPG

stndx20140815.JPG

stcac20140815.JPG

stdax20140815.JPG

stestox20140815.JPG

stibex20140815.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1896, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3802, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4090, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2963, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 8978, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10088)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 15 août 2014 5 15 /08 /Août /2014 11:36

Sorry to be late today, but as I've a day off, I took the opportunity to sleep very very late...

 

 

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a nice session on Thursday and we are now right below the pink horizontal resistance. It will be very important to see if the market can move above this level or not. If it can, there is a high probability that the market will test previous high. If not, we could sharply decline from here.

 

SWM20140814.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is at '+1'. So, this is a positive signal, we are back in positive territory.

 

stmode20140814.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop level on all indexes:

 

stspx20140814.JPG

stndx20140814.JPG

stcac20140814.JPG

stdax20140814.JPG

stestox20140814.JPG

stibex20140814.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1892, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3793, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4081, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2952, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 8925, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10023)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 14 août 2014 4 14 /08 /Août /2014 08:50

The Sigma Whole Market index continues to recover after last weeks losses. Tuesday session was strong but we believe it remains some upside in this rebound.

 

SWM20140813.JPG

 

The NDX is testing a previous support (now a resistance).

 

chartNDX20140813.JPG

Looking at the Russell 2000, the Small Cap 600 and the Mid400, it seems there is more upside in this rebound.

 

chartRUT20140813.JPG

chartMID20140813.JPG

chartSC20140813.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is at '-1', very close to its zero line. The swing came in at '4', telling us the move was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140813.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels for most of our positions:

 

stspx20140813.JPG

stndx20140813.JPG

stdax20140813.JPG

stestox20140813.JPG

stibex20140813.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1888, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3786, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4076, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2946, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 8877, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10015)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 13 août 2014 3 13 /08 /Août /2014 08:15

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains in rebound mode. We expect higher levels in coming sessions: the lower end of the pink horizontal trading range should (at least) be tested.

 

SWM20140812.JPG

The Sigma Trend Index is unchanged at '-4', not far from its zero line. Both the Swing and the Power Level (PL) are neutral at '3'.

 

stmode20140812.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels for the IBEX:

 

stibex20140812.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1887, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3777, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4076, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2942, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 8864, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10010)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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