Mercredi 30 juillet 2014 3 30 /07 /Juil /2014 08:44

The Sigma Whole Market Index is stuck in a narrow trading range. We have to wait for a breakout in order to get a clear signal for the next direction.

 

SWM20140729.JPG

 

Russell 2000, S&P Mid Cap400 and S&P Small Cap 600 are close to key supports. We are convinced that if they move through those supports, the whole market will go under pressure.

 

chartmid20140729.JPG

 

There is no new information coming from our indicators: the Sigma Trend Index seems unable to move back in positive territory.

 

stmodel20140729.JPG

 

There is no change in our positions:

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1932, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3835, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4276, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3128, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10670, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 29 juillet 2014 2 29 /07 /Juil /2014 08:59

Looking at the chart of the Sigma Whole Market Index, we can notice a flat consolidation (in pink). In order to confirm the uptrend is alive, we need to move above this horizontal channel.

 

SWM20140728.JPG

 

Looking at the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10yr T-Notes, we can notice a kind of distribution pattern. At this time this is just a point of attention, but we need to monitor it because if the (red) uptrend channel is broken in coming weeks, this would mean the Bull Run started in Sept 2011 is over and this would (probably) lead to a major correction in equities.

 

bdseq20140728.JPG

 

Looking at the chart of the EurosToxx50, we can count a clear 5 waves move to the downside (1-2-3-4-5) followed by a 2 waves move (a-b). We believe we need another upleg (c) in order to finish the rebound (in abc). Then, the selling pressure should come back.

 

chartestox20140728.JPG

 

We can see a similar pattern on a lot of indexes:

chartSC20140728.JPG

chartRUT20140728.JPG

chartMID20140728.JPG

chartIBEX20140728.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is close to its zero line (at '-5'). It will be interesting to monitor if it can move back in positive territory.

 

stmodel20140728.JPG

 

There is no change in our positions:

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1932, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3835, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4276, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3128, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10585, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Lundi 28 juillet 2014 1 28 /07 /Juil /2014 08:29

The Sigma Whole Market Index pulled back on Friday. Recent uptrend is quiet choppy, next week will be very interesting. The market needs to move above the pink horizontal resistance in order to confirm the uptrend.

 

SWM20140725.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index fell in negative territory, this is not a good sign for the market. It is crucial this index moves higher early next week or the market will be in trouble.

The Swing was at '2', telling us the decline was impulsive.

 

stmodel20140725.JPG

 

The DAX hit our stop loss on Friday: 9630.8 - 9738.15 = - 107.35 (loss)

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1932, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3835, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4276, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3128, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10585, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 25 juillet 2014 5 25 /07 /Juil /2014 08:54

The Sigma Whole Market Index closed unchanged for the second consecutive session. The market is looking for its next direction. We are not far from recent highs and it will be interesting to see if we can retest this level in coming sessions.

 

SWM20140724.JPG

 

There is no change in our indicators.

 

stmodel20140724.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on all our positions:

 

stspx20140724.JPG

stndx20140724.JPG

stcac20140724.JPG

stdax20140724.JPG

stestox20140724.JPG

stibex20140724.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1932, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3835, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4276, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3128, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: long at 9738.15 (stop @ 9632, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10585, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 24 juillet 2014 4 24 /07 /Juil /2014 08:57

The Sigma Whole Market Index consolidated on Wednesday. The divergence between large cap indexes (s&p100, s&p500, nasdaq 100) and small & mid cap indexes (Russell 2000, S&P Small Cap 600, S&P Mid Cap 400, ...) becomes extreme and we need a catch up from one side or the other one.

 

SWM20140723.JPG

 

Looking at the relative performance of large cap vs other sizes, we can notice that recent outperformance is unsustainable.

 

largevssmall20170723.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma trend Index continues to climb (at '10'). We are still far from the key '34' level, but this is something we have to monitor.

 

stmodel20140723.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on all our positions:

 

stspx20140723.JPG

stndx20140723.JPG

stcac20140723.JPG

stdax20140723.JPG

stestox20140723.JPG

stibex20140723

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1930, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3833, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4268, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3120, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: long at 9738.15 (stop @ 9625, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10451, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 23 juillet 2014 3 23 /07 /Juil /2014 07:51

The Sigma Whole Market Index had a good session on Tuesday. The rebound continues and the head & shoulders pattern seems over.

 

SWM20140722.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index moved to '9', this is a positive sign for the market. The Swing was at '4', telling us the day was slightly impulsive.

 

stmodel20140722.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on all our positions:

 

stspx20140722.JPG

stndx20140722.JPG

stcac20140722.JPG

stdax20140722.JPG

stestox20140722.JPG

stibex20140722.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1929, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3825, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4259, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3110, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: long at 9738.15 (stop @ 9564, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10424, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 22 juillet 2014 2 22 /07 /Juil /2014 08:18

The Sigma Whole MArket Index slightly declined on Monday (after Friday strong session). The market remains above a key short term support (pink horizontal line). Nevertheless, recent price action looks like a head and shoulders pattern.

 

SWM20140721-copie-2.JPG

 

The EuroStoxx and the S&P Mid Cap 400 are on strong support, it is very important they remain above those supports.

 

chartestox20140721.JPG

chartsc20140721.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is right on its zero line, it will be interesting to monitor if it is able to stay in positive territory in coming sessions.

 

stmodel20140721.JPG

 

The ST model uplifted its stop on the EuroStoxx:

 

stestox20140721.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1925, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3817, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4244, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3096, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: long at 9738.15 (stop @ 9273, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10306, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
 

 
Medium Term Trading Book:
 

- No more medium term position at this stage.
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
Ecrire un commentaire / Write a comment - Voir les 0 commentaires

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NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, COMMODITIES, OPTIONS, BONDS, FUTURES, OR BULLION. ACTIONS YOU UNDERTAKE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF OUR ANALYSIS, OPINION OR ADVERTISEMENT ON THIS SITE ARE YOUR SOLE RESPONSIBILITY.

FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE, PLAN A MEETING WITH A FINANCIAL ADVISOR IN ORDER TO ESTABLISH YOUR OWN RISK PROFILE.

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