Mercredi 23 avril 2014 3 23 /04 /Avr /2014 07:07

The market was able to print its 6th consecutive white candle and closed above the pink horizontal resistance. So, on a short term basis this is bullish but we must keep in mind it took 6 sessions in order to retrace the decline achieved in 2 sessions. So, medium term picture remains unclear at this stage: Is the correction really over or are we in a short term bounce back?

 

SWM20140422.JPG

 

Looking at the relative performance between bonds and equities, we can notice the chart remains in its recent trading range: the market hasn't decided yet.But long term uptrend is intact.

 

BDSEQ20140422.JPG

 

Looking at recent relative performance between US cyclicals and US defensive sectors, we can notice a (recent) strong outperformance of defensive sectors. Nevertheless, the whole consolidation could be an 'abc' correction. If this is the right answer, the cyclical sectors should resume their outperformance (after recent correction).

 

cyclvsdef20140422.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index is relatively unchanged. The Swing was at '4' on Tuesday, telling us the move remains impulsive.

 

stmodel20140422.JPG

 

The ST model uplifted its stop levels on all our positions:

 

stspx20140422.JPG

stndx20140422.JPG

stcac20140422.JPG

stdax20140422.JPG

stestox20140422.JPG

stibex20140422.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: long at 1830.28 (stop @ 1807, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: long at 3477.72(stop @ 3400, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- CAC: long at 4374.06(stop @ 4333, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- EStoxx: long at 3115.67 (stop @ 3097, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: long at 9275.85 (stop @ 9423, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: long at 10131.3(stop @ 10189, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

 

 

Out of model position: 

 

- 1 put SPX, MAY, strike 1400 @ usd2.85

- 2 short NDX @ 3487.38

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 22 avril 2014 2 22 /04 /Avr /2014 07:52

The Sigma Whole MArket Index continues to bounce back. Nevertheless, (after 9 sessions of bounce back) we haven't been able to retrace a decline achieved in 2 sessions. So, it is important (for sentiment) to move above the pink horizontal resistance.

 

SWM20140421.JPG

 

There is no new information coming from our indicators. The Sigma Trend Index remains above its zero line.

 

stmodel20140421.JPG

 

The ST model uplifted its stops on both the SPX and the NDX:

 

stndx20140421.JPG

stspx20140421.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: long at 1830.28 (stop @ 1801, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: long at 3477.72(stop @ 3388, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- CAC: long at 4374.06(stop @ 4300, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- EStoxx: long at 3115.67 (stop @ 3073, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: long at 9275.85 (stop @ 9255, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: long at 10131.3(stop @ 10078, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

 

 

Out of model position: 

 

- 1 put SPX, MAY, strike 1400 @ usd2.85

- 2 short NDX @ 3487.38

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 18 avril 2014 5 18 /04 /Avr /2014 11:33

The Sigma Whole MArket Index gained 0.3% on Thursday. Current situation between Russia and Ukraine could come back on top of the agenda if there is further deterioration in the situation during the week-end.

On the positive side, it is very encouraging that disappointing results from both IBM and GOOG were not able to put the NDX under pressure.

 

 

SWM20140417.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index eased a little bit but remains above its zero line.

 

stmodel20140417.JPG

 

The ST model uplifted some stops:

 

stspx20140417.JPG

stndx20140417.JPG

stdax20140417.JPG

stestox20140417.JPG

stibex20140417.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: long at 1830.28 (stop @ 1800, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: long at 3477.72(stop @ 3385, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- CAC: long at 4374.06(stop @ 4300, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- EStoxx: long at 3115.67 (stop @ 3073, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: long at 9275.85 (stop @ 9255, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: long at 10131.3(stop @ 10078, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

 

 

Out of model position: 

 

- 1 put SPX, MAY, strike 1400 @ usd2.85

- 2 short NDX @ 3487.38

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 17 avril 2014 4 17 /04 /Avr /2014 09:36

The market had another strong session and closed near session's high. The market is back in its trading range and this sounds rather positive.

 

SWM20140416.JPG

 

The NDX shows some signs of stabilisation (with 3 consecutive doji and only marginal lows). Nevertheless, as both IBM and GOOG reported disappointing numbers in after hours, the index will probably be under pressure on Thursday.

 

chartNDX20140416.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Swing remains at '4', telling us the move remains impulsive. The Sigma Trend Index moved back in positive territory and this is another good sign for the market.

 

stmodel20140416.JPG

 

The ST model uplifted some stops:

 

stspx20140416.JPG

stndx20140416.JPG

stcac20140416.JPG

stibex20140416.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: long at 1830.28 (stop @ 1796, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: long at 3477.72(stop @ 3379, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- CAC: long at 4374.06(stop @ 4300, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- EStoxx: long at 3115.67 (stop @ 3064, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: long at 9275.85 (stop @ 9189, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: long at 10131.3(stop @ 10038, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

 

 

Out of model position: 

 

- 1 put SPX, MAY, strike 1400 @ usd2.85

- 2 short NDX @ 3487.38

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 16 avril 2014 3 16 /04 /Avr /2014 09:15

The market was able to print a bullish candle on Tuesday: after a new low, the market was able to rally and closed near the session's high. The close was right on the blue horizontal resistance. So, either the correction is over (clear 'abc') or the bounce back is over and we will resume the decline in coming sessions. Looking at the chart, we have a slight preference for the 'end of the correction' scenario.

 

SWM20140415.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Swing was at '4', telling us the move remains impulsive.

 

stmodel20140415.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on most of our positions:

 

stspx20140415.JPG

stndx20140415.JPG

stcac20140415.JPG

stdax20140415.JPG

stestox20140415.JPG

stibex20140415.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: long at 1830.28 (stop @ 1787, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: long at 3477.72(stop @ 3370, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- CAC: long at 4374.06(stop @ 4300, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- EStoxx: long at 3115.67 (stop @ 3064, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: long at 9275.85 (stop @ 9189, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: long at 10131.3(stop @ 10022, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

 

 

Out of model position: 

 

- 1 put SPX, MAY, strike 1400 @ usd2.85

- 2 short NDX @ 3487.38

Par sigmatradingoscillator
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Mardi 15 avril 2014 2 15 /04 /Avr /2014 14:13

The Sigma Whole Market Index bounced back on Monday and it seems it is just a bounce back from oversold territory. As long as the market remains below recent trading range, we consider the situation is negative. Nevertheless, we can't consider the situation is 'highly' bearish as long as we remain above the red ascending line.

 

 

SWM20140414.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the swing was at '4' on Monday. As the Trend Level was at '1' on Friday, it means we got a confirmed buy signal.(have a look at the link in the right column if you want more details on our methodology).

To be honest, we have no conviction in this buy signal but we have to admit that our ST model has a better track record than our own feeling, this is the reason why we don't take major divergence with the model.

 

stmodel20140414.JPG

 

So, we followed the ST model and bought:

- 1 CAC @ 4374.06

- 1 DAX @ 9275.85

- 1 Estox @ 3115.67

- 1 IBEX @ 10131.3

- 1 SPX @ 1830.28

- 1 NDX @ 3477.72

 

stspx20140414.JPG

ndx20140414.JPG

stdax20140414.JPG

stcac20140414.JPG

stestox20140414.JPG

stibex20140414.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:

 

- SPX: long at 1830.28 (stop @ 1782, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- NDX: long at 3477.72(stop @ 3365, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- CAC: long at 4374.06(stop @ 4292, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

- EStoxx: long at 3115.67 (stop @ 3048, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- DAX: long at 9275.85 (stop @ 8909, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- IBEX: long at 10131.3(stop @ 9974, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) 

 

 

Medium Term Trading Book:

 

- No more medium term position at this stage.

 

 

Out of model position: 

 

- 1 put SPX, MAY, strike 1400 @ usd2.85

- 2 short NDX @ 3487.38

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 15 avril 2014 2 15 /04 /Avr /2014 10:39

Sorry, I'm very busy today, I will post the update later

Par sigmatradingoscillator
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