Mardi 19 août 2014
The Sigma Whole Market Index remains very well oriented. Recent rally seems to strong to be a 'simple' rebound in a downtrend. The move is clearly impulsive and it seems the
market wants (at least) to retest its previous high.
Looking at the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10yr T-Notes, we can see that the green horizontal support did its job and the market found support on it .We are now back
in the middle of the uptrend and there is no sign of reversal at this stage.
The Nasdaq is very strong but the Russell 2000, the Small Cap 600 and the Mid Cap 400 remain in a weak rebound pattern. There are some rooms before those (weak) indexes reach their (blue)
Looking at Europe, we can notice that most indexes are just below strong resistances. So, if we get a breakout of those resistances, we should get a nice (short term) rally from here. As
the Sigma Whole MArket Index is well oriented, we believe there are more chance to break those resistances than to roll down.
The Sigma Trend Index is well in positive territory. The Swing was at '4', telling us the move remains impulsive.
The ST model computed new stop levels on both the SPX and the NDX:
Short Term Trading Book:
- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1898, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3810, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4090, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2963, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: long at 9184.25 (stop @ 8978, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10088)