Vendredi 31 octobre 2014 5 31 /10 /Oct /2014 08:41

There is nothing important this morning (we can say, see or analyze) because the BOJ decided to increase the size of its balance sheet (just when the Fed decided to limit it) and the equity market (around the world) loved the decision.

 

We know we should get a huge gap at the open but it will be interesting to see if the gains are sustainable or if the investors take this oportunity to sharply reduce their exposure to equities.

 

SWM20141030.PNG

SWE20141030.PNG

 

The Sigma trend Index will be important to monitor because a close abve the key '34' level on Friday would be the first element for a sell signal next week.

 

stmodel20141030.PNG

 

The IBEX was stopped on Thursday because this index declined below our stop level. (We had no position on this index but we want to report it for the ones who are interested by this index).

 

The ST model uplifted its stop for some indexes:

 

stspx20141030.PNG

stNDX20141030.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1887, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3928, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8841, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: stopped

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 30 octobre 2014 4 30 /10 /Oct /2014 08:32

The Sigma Whole Market Index printed a 'doji' at the lower end of previous uptrend. It seems the market is losing some momentum but after such a rally this is rather normal. We can't interpret this as a bearish signal.

 

SWM20141029.PNG

 

Looking at the NDX and the SmallCap600, those indexes are right below major resistance. We consider those 2 indexes are the key ones to focus on (at this stage): if they are able to print new historical highs then the whole market will continue its advance.

If they roll down from here, this could be the early sign that the rebound could be over.

 

chartNDX20141029.PNG

chartSC20141029.PNG

 

Looking at the Sigma Whole Europe Index, we can also notice the market is losing part of its momentum. We can also notice the rebound was much smaller than in the US. On top of that, it seems that recent rebound looks like an 'abc' pattern (not a perfect one, but it could work). So, we are more cautious on Europe.

 

SWE20141029.PNG

Looking at some key European indexes, we can also notice that they are not far from key supports. So, any reversal from here could do some major damages.

 

chartCAC20141029.PNG

chartSTX20141029.PNG

chartDAX20141029.PNG

The Sigma trend Index sharply declined to '15'.Other indicators were neutral (at '3')

 

stmodel20141029.PNG

 

The ST model uplifted some of its stops:

 

stspx20141029.PNG

stndx20141029.PNG

stdax20141029.PNG

stIBEX20141029.PNG

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1883, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3927, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8841, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10166)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 29 octobre 2014 3 29 /10 /Oct /2014 07:58

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a huge rally. It is now testing the lower band of the former uptrend. At the same time, the Sigma Trend Index is close to its key '34' level. Let's see what hapens with the Fed.

 

SWM20141028.PNG

 

Looking at the Sigma Whole Europe Index, we can notice the situation is much less impressive: recent retracement is much smaller than the US one.

 

SWE20141028.PNG

 

Looking at some specific indexes, we can notice the NDX is close to print a new historical high. The Russell2000, Mid Cap400 and Small Cap600 were able to post huge gains on Tuesday. This rally was just impressive.

 

chartRUT20141028.PNG

chartSC20141028.PNG

chartNDX20141028.PNG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is now at '25'. This means it is close to the key '34' level required for a sell signal (have a look at our methodology for more details on buy and sell sigals).

The Swing came in at '5', telling us the rally was highly impulsive.

 

stmodel20141028.PNG

 

The ST model uplifted its stops for both the SPX and the NDX:

 

stspx20141028.PNG

stndx20141028.PNG

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1880, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3782, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8806, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10162)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 28 octobre 2014 2 28 /10 /Oct /2014 08:29

The Sigma Whole Market Index is struggling with the pink horizontal resistance. It is difficult to have a clear opinion on the next big move: different signals are favoring both directions.

 

SWM20141027.PNG

 

Looking at key US indexes, it seems we should have (at least) another small upleg in order to finish an 'abc' pattern. Once again, the NDX is the strongest one.

chartMID20141027.PNG

chartRUT20141027.PNG

chartNDX20141027.PNG

In Europe, it seems the 'abc' could already be finished.

 

chartCAC20141027.PNG

chartDAX20141027.PNG

chartSTX20141027.PNG

chartEUSmall20141027.PNG

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory and other indexes were neutral on Monday.

 

stmodel20141027.PNG

 

Both the CAC and the EuroStoxx50 were stoped, booking some nice gain:

- CAC stopped at 4089.93 -> 4089.93 - 4001.79 = 88.14 (gain)

- EStoxx stopped at 2997.87 -> 2997.87 - 2929.54 = 68.33 (gan)

 

 

The STmodel uplifted its stop for the NDX, DAX and the IBEX :

stndx20141027.PNG

STdax20141027.PNG

stibex20141027.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1870, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3764, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8806, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10162)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Dimanche 26 octobre 2014 7 26 /10 /Oct /2014 19:47

This is very impressive to see what happened in the market during this week. Two weeks ago we were in a free fall and now the market looks very strong, once again.

We remain long at this stage because the ST model is (still) long. Nevertheless, this type of huge volatility (up or down) usually happens in bear marrather than in bull market => be careful.

The Sigma Whole Market Index is right below a major resistance (pink horizontal line). A move above this level would sharply reduce the probability of a new down leg while a reversal from here could be very nasty.

 

SWM20141025.PNG

 

Some indexes are at key levels too. Once again the NDX is the strongest one while the Russel2000 remains among the weakest indexes.

 

chartNDX20141025.PNG

chartRUT20141025.PNG

chartSC20141025.PNG

The Sigma Trend Index is well in positive territory. The 8th latest sessions have been impulsive (either positive or negative). This is, another way to underline the volatility is important.

 

stmodel20141025.PNG

 

The ST model uplifted all its stops:

 

stspx20141025.PNG

stndx20141025.PNG

stCAC20141025.PNG

stEstox20141025.PNG

stDAX20141025.PNG

stIBEX20141025.PNG

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1870, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3761, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4001.79(stop @ 4090, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 2929.54 (stop @ 2998, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8797 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10074)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 24 octobre 2014 5 24 /10 /Oct /2014 08:32

We are on the road and the bandwith at the hotel is so low that we are unable to update our models.

We will try to fix it later.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 23 octobre 2014 4 23 /10 /Oct /2014 08:09

The Sigma Whole Market index is very close to the pink horizontal resistance. As long as the market remains below this level, we consider the bounce back scenario is the one to favor (-> new decline to come). If the market can move above this level (pink horizontal resistance), the probability that the correction could be over would sharply increase.

 

SWM20141022.PNG

 

The CAC is now on a strong resistance and the NDX is testing its downtrend.

 

chartCAC20141022.PNG

chartNDX20141022.PNG

chartRUT20141022.PNG

The Swing was at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive. That was something else than a 'normal' consolidation.

 

stmodel20141022.PNG

 

The ST model uplifted most of its stops:

 

stspx20141022.PNG

stndx20141022.PNG

stcac20141022-copie-1.PNG

stdax20141022.PNG

stestox20141022-copie-1.PNG

stibex20141022.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1862, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3742, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4001.79(stop @ 3962, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 2929.54 (stop @ 2905, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8741 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 9975)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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