Dimanche 31 août 2014 7 31 /08 /Août /2014 18:17

It seems the Sigma Whole Market Index is ready for a breakout. Nevertheless, as the medium term uptrend has been broken few weeks ago (pink circle), it means the market remains in trouble. On top of that, as the Russell 2000, the Small Cap 600, the mid Cap400 and most European indexes are far from their top, it means we could get a weak momentum top. This kind of top usually occurs at major top.

 

SWM20140829.JPG

 

There is no new information coming from our indicators.

 

stmodel20140829.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1917, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3829, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4154, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3113, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9230, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10477)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 29 août 2014 5 29 /08 /Août /2014 12:32

Sorry to be late today but we are on the road and the WiFi connection was so poor at the hotel we were unable to update the models. So, we had to find another connection.

 

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains in consolidation but current action looks like a short term consolidation because some key indexes remains above key levels => we believe we should get a new up leg in coming sessions.

 

 

SWM20140828.JPG

 

Both the Russell 2000 and the Mid400 are in consolidation right above major supports. This looks like a good sign.

 

chartRUT20140828.JPG

chartMID20140828.JPG

 

In Europe, it seems current counter trend isn't over yet. Recent upleg was so powerful it is probably a wave '3' => we are in 4 and we need a 5th wave in order to complete the rebound.

 

chartCAC20140828.JPG

chartEstox20140828.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index continues to ease but it remains above its zero line => good sign

 

stmodel20140828.JPG

 

The ST model uplifted its stop on the Estoxx:

 

stestox20140828.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1917, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3829, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4154, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3113, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9230, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10477)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 28 août 2014 4 28 /08 /Août /2014 11:36

The Sigma Whole MArket Index continues to consolidate its recent gains. It is too early to say if we will move higher or if we will print a double top.

 

SWM20140827.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index eased a little bit but it remains well in positive territory.

 

stmodel20140827.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on European indexes:

 

stcac20140827.JPG

stdax20140827.JPG

stestox20140827.JPG

stibex20140827.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1917, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3829, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4154, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3022, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9230, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10477)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 27 août 2014 3 27 /08 /Août /2014 07:47

The Sigma Whole Market continues to struggle with its major resistance. We have no clear idea about the next big move.

 

SWM20140826.JPG

 

The Russell 2000 finally moved above the red horizontal resistance. This is good news but this move doesn't look like an impulsive one. We continue to believe this index is in a counter trend move.

 

chartRUT20140826.JPG

 

The Small Cap 600 remains below its horizontal resistance. Current move remains weak.

 

chartSC20140826.JPG

 

It seems Europe has been very strong (relative to US) for a couple of sessions. In fact, adjusting price for FX change, the Europe remains close to its weakest point on a 4 months basis. (Don't forget the Euro-Dollars sharply declined from 1.39 to 1.317 in 4 months).

 

usvseu20140826.JPG

Looking at the Sigma European Market Index, it seems we still have some upside without any major resistance.

 

SEMI20140826.JPG

Looking at specific indexes, the CAC and the EuroStoxx are close to major resistances but other indexes will probably face less resistance (IBEX and DAX).

 

chartCAC20140826.JPG

chartEstox20140826.JPG

chartDAX20140826.JPG

chartIBEX20140826.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is now at '20'.

 

stmodel20140826.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stops on most of our positions:

 

stspx20140826.JPG

stcac20140826.JPG

stdax20140826.JPG

stestox20140826.JPG

stibex20140826.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1917, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3829, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4152, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3020, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9221, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10436)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 26 août 2014 2 26 /08 /Août /2014 08:31

The Sigma Whole Market Index printed a perfect double top. We are not particularly bearish at this time because the momentum has been so strong we don't believe we could roll down right now. Nevertheless, we consider some clouds are in the market. So, we will have to monitor any distribution pattern around this level.

 

SWM20140825.JPG

 

The biggest warning is coming from the Sigma Smart Money Index (SSMI) where we can notice a clear negative divergence (lower high on the SSMI and higher high on the Sigma Whole Market Index).

 

SSMI20140825.JPG

Another warning signal is coming from both the Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap 400 which are unable to break meaningful resistances in current rebound. Current action looks like a counter trend move, a bounce back in a downtrend.

 

chartRUT20140825.JPG

chartSC20140825.JPG

 

Looking at Europe, we can notice that most indexes are now above strong resistances. So, we don't expect a reversal from here. It seems European indexes still have more upside. Nevertheless, they are so far from their highs that current action looks like a bounce back rather than a new up leg.

 

chartCAC20140825.JPG

chartEStox20140825.JPG

chartIBEX20140825.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index continues to climb, we are now at '19', not very far from the key '34' level.

 

stmodel20140825.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stops on most of our positions:

 

stspx20140825.JPG

stndx20140825.JPG

stdax20140825.JPG

stcac20140825.JPG

stestox20140825.JPG

stibex20140825.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1915, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3829, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4131, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3002, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9147, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10320)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Dimanche 24 août 2014 7 24 /08 /Août /2014 21:37

The Sigma Whole Market Index is just below a strong horizontal resistance. Either we are in consolidation or in a building top process. The consolidation scenario would imply 2 to 3 days of consolidation followed by new highs. So, if the market can't reach new highs before the end of next week, the building top scenario will become our favorite one. But, at this stage, we continue to favor the bullish one.

 

SWM20140822.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index slightly declined on Friday but it remains well in positive territory.

 

stmodel20140822.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stops on some positions:

 

stndx20140822.JPG

stdax20140822.JPG

stibex20140822.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1909, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3823, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4111, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2980, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9060, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10230)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 22 août 2014 5 22 /08 /Août /2014 08:57

The Sigma Whole MArket Index is now facing strong resistances (pink and red horizontal resistances). It will be very interesting to see if this index is able to print a sustainable new high or if we enter in a double top pattern. Recent rally has been very sharp and could be a blow off top.

 

SWM20140821.JPG

 

The Russell 2000 has been very weak in recent rally and it hasn't been able to break any major resistance. Recent price action looks like a bounce back/counter trend. This is a major warning signal to monitor.

 

chartRUT20140821.JPG

 

Looking at Europe, we are more 'relaxed' talking about further upside. Why? Because recent underperformance of Europe relative to US has been dramatic: 10% in 4 months, this is huge.

 

chartEUvsUS20140821.JPG

On top of that, some major European indexes were able to break major resistances and there is no major resistance in front of those European indexes (except for the EuroStoxx). So, US is probably entering an area of major resistances while Europe should be able to grap some points (I mean points not percentage).

 

chartCAC20140821.JPG

chartDAX20140821.JPG

chartESTOX20140821.JPG

chartIBEX20140821.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index continues to move higher. The Trend Level is now at '4', telling us this rally is maturing.

 

stmodel20140820-copie-1.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on most of our positions:

 

stcac20140821.JPG

stdax20140821.JPG

stestox20140821.JPG

stibex20140821.JPG

stspx20140821.JPG

stndx20140821.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1909, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3819, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4111, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 2980, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9052, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10214)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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