Dimanche 21 septembre 2014 7 21 /09 /Sep /2014 22:17

The Sigma Whole Market Index  had a good start on Friday but it was unable to keep early gains. At the end of the day, it has printed a big black candle, telling us the session was pretty weak.

 

SWM20140919.JPG

 

The Russell 2000 was under heavy pressure, telling us the situation remains unhealthy at this stage.

 

chartRUT20140919.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index sharply declined on Friday, ( from '29' to '8'), telling us the session was rather weak. The Power Level came in at '2' confirming the session was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140919.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on most of our positions:

 

stspx20140919.JPG

stndx20140918-copie-1.JPG

stdax20140919.JPG

chartEstox20140919.JPG

stibex20140919.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1926, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3873, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3172, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9575 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10733)
Par sigmatradingoscillator
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Vendredi 19 septembre 2014 5 19 /09 /Sep /2014 08:44

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a strong session but even if some key indexes (DJI, SPX, ...) printed new all-time highs, the Sigma Whole Market Index didn't do it. This means we have an important divergence between some major indexes: we have been underlining this warning for a couple of weeks when we talk about the Russell, Small Cap and Mid Cap weakness.

 

SWM20140918.JPG

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index jumped to '29', very close to the key '34' level required for a 'sell' signal. (have a look at our methodology for details on buy/sell signals).

The Swing was at '4', telling us the move was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140918.JPG

 

The ST model computed a new stop level for the SPX:

 

 

stspx20140918.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1922, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3873, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 18 septembre 2014 4 18 /09 /Sep /2014 06:39

The Sigma Whole MArket Index (SWMI) had a volatile session on Wednesday (thanks to Ms Yellen). At the end of the day, the SWMI printed a clear 'doji' and closed below the red horizontal resistance. The end of the week will be intertesting with the Scotland vote.

 

SWM20140917.JPG

 

The Russell 2000 and the Mid Cap 400 remain unconvincing.

 

chartRUT20140917.JPG

charMID20140917.JPG

 

Looking at key European indexes (CAC,DAX, Estoxx), we are right above a major support on all of them, we must keep this level or the selling pressure will increase.

 

chartDAX20140917.JPG

chartEstox20140917.JPG

chartCAC20140917.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index bounced back in positive territory. This is a first positive sign, but we need to keep this level in coming days in order to refuel the rally.

 

stmodel20140917.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3873, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 17 septembre 2014 3 17 /09 /Sep /2014 10:23

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a nice session but, it remains below the red resistance. So, it is too early to say we are back in the uptrend.

 

SWM20140916.JPG

 

On top of that, the Russell didn't print an impressive bounce back on Tuesday and we remain sceptical about current action on this index.

 

chartRUT20140916.JPG

 

Looking at the Eurostoxx50, it was able to manage a close right on its support. So, things are not so bad.

 

chartESTOX20140916.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index bounced back but remains in negative territory. The Swing came at '4', telling us the move was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140916.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3873, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator
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Mardi 16 septembre 2014 2 16 /09 /Sep /2014 06:53

The Sigma Whole Market Index continues to slide. It is now well below the red horizontal support. It will be important to stay in the uptrend channel (close to pink support).

If the situation continues to deteriorate from here, there is a meaningful risk we have just printed a major top. Why? The market broke its uptrend in May (not), then it was able to rally and to print a marginal new high (could be a failed top). Moreover, this top was a weak momentum top because it was not confirmed by the Russell 2000, The Mid Cap 400 and the Samll Cap 600.

 

SWM20140915.JPG

 

Looking at the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq100 and the Mid Cap, we can notice those markets were under heavy pressure on Monday. Some are talking about an Alibaba effect (building cash in order to subscribe to the IPO). This is possible but there is no certainty this is the right explanation.

 

chartNDX20140915.JPG

chartRUT20140915.JPG

chartMID20140915.JPG

 

In Europe, the situation looks in a better shape: key indexes are still above horizontal supports. But it is important to bounce back from here or those markets will be under pressure.

 

chartCAC20140915.JPG

chartEstox20140915.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index sharply declined to '-24'. The Power Level (PL) was at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140915

 

There is no change in our position at this stage:

 

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Lundi 15 septembre 2014 1 15 /09 /Sep /2014 08:48

The Sigma Whole Market Index declined on Friday. The market is testing recent low. It would be better to stay above this level. If not, we are at risk of further weakness.

 

SWM20140912.JPG

 

The Sigma trend Index is now in negative territory, this is not a good sign. The swing came at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140912.JPG

 

There is no change in our trading book:

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 12 septembre 2014 5 12 /09 /Sep /2014 08:55

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a low volatility day and was able to pursue its bounce back.

 

SWM20140911.JPG

 

It is interesting to notice that some key indexes were able to find some support and bounced back. As long as those supports hold on, this is positive for the market. It will be interesting to monitor if the market is able to print a new high in coming days.

 

chartMID20140911.JPG

chartESTOX20140911.JPG

chartCAC20140911.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory, other indicators are neutral at '3'.

 

stmodel20140911.JPG

 

There is no change in our trading book:

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
Ecrire un commentaire / Write a comment - Voir les 0 commentaires

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