Mardi 27 janvier 2015 2 27 /01 /Jan /2015 06:34

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues to climb, this market seems unstoppable. It seems Mr Draghi is THE master of short squeezes.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150127.jpg

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index remains above the key '34' level and so, it remains ready to generate a 'sell' signal. This is the 6th consecutive session with the STI above the key '34'level, the market booked 8 consecutive sessions of gains (+8% on this period). This kind of move is just unbelievable.

It is nearly sure the ST model will generate a 'sell' signal during this week, but looking at recent strength in the European market, we are not sure this signal will be a good one. Nevertheless, we will implement it when it occurs.

 

steumodel20150126.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains in the middle of its recent trading range. Maybe the market is waiting for J. Yellen. No doubt she could again surprise the market with another dovish statement.

 

US-Daily-Chart SWM 20150127

 

The Russell 2000 shows some sign of strength, this is good news for the broad market.

 

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150127.jpg

 

But the Nasdaq 100 remains unconvincing. So, let's wait for the FOMC meeting.

 

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150127.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains close to its zero line. It seems US market starts to feel the pain of the strong USD. This is a very good reason for J. Yellen to be dovish.

 

stmodel20150126.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Lundi 26 janvier 2015 1 26 /01 /Jan /2015 08:46

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continued its rally on Friday. Current move is impressive. We believe we should get a consolidation in coming sessions in order to retest the red horizontal resistance. If the market can remain above the red horizontal resistance, a new upleg is possible.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150126.jpg

 

Looking at key European Indexes, we can notice the Euro zone area is in a bull run while the FTSE and the SMI don't experience the same rally. It is clear that the weaker euro is a strong tailwind for the Eurozone area.

 

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150126.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index came in at '74' and the Swing came in at '5'. The market has been able to book 7 consecutive (positive) impulse session. The market is so overbought (on short term basis) that a 'sell' signal seems unavoidable.

 

  steumodel20150123.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was unable to hold its gain on Friday. At the end of the session, the market came under selling pressure. It is clear the strong USD weights on corporate profits and competitiveness. 

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150126.jpg

 

Looking at key US indexes we can notice they are not in the same situation than the European market: most of them are not close to their recent top. The DJ Utilities is the big exception and it is probably due to dividend yield hunting in this weak interest rates environment.

 

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150126.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index close the week above its zero line, this is a positive sign for the US equity market..

 

stmodel20150123.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

Side bet: 

 CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 23 janvier 2015 5 23 /01 /Jan /2015 10:09

Europe:

Tanks to the ECB, the Sigma Whole Europe Index was able to move and close above the key red horizontal resistance. This looks bullish on a technical basis unless this move is a false break/bull trap. 

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150122-copie-1.jpg

 

Looking at key European Indexes, we can notice a clear breakout on some of them.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150122-copie-1.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150122-copie-1.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150122-copie-1.jpg

 

The SMI remains under pressure due to the weakening euro but as long as it remains above the blue horizontal support, things remain under control.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150122.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index jumped to '69'. This level is unsustainable, current upleg is in a full impulse move for the 6 latest sessions. This kind of move is highly powerful. This could be the signal for a major brekout.

 

steumodel20150122.PNG

 

United States

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a strong session on Thursday. Like a junky, the market was feeling good with the new wave of liquidity coming from the ECB.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150123.jpg

 

Most US indexes are in a bounce back mode, but only few of them are close to their recent top.

 

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJT_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150123.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index moved in positive territory (at '4'). The Swing came in at '5' telling us the session was highly impulsive.

 

stmodel20150122.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

Side bet: 

-   CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 22 janvier 2015 4 22 /01 /Jan /2015 10:10

We didn't get any sell signal from our model at this stage but the STI is well above '34'. According to this level, we believe the upside potential on the ECB decision is rather limited (but be careful, this is just our feeling and this could be a mistake). So, we decided to open 2 side bets.

 

We sold (and we are now short):

- 1 CAC @ 4490.35

- 1 EuroStoxx @ 3276.5

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Trade
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Jeudi 22 janvier 2015 4 22 /01 /Jan /2015 09:33

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index was able to move above the first pink horizontal resistance. There is a high probability the market could test the red horizontal resistance on the ECB' decision. In order to open the way for further gains, we need a close above the red horizontal resistance.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150122.jpg

 

Looking at key EU indexes, we can see various situations: some indexes are printing new highs while other indexes remain in the middle of their trading range.

 

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartEUSMALL200_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150122.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index Europe remains above the key '34' level. So, any impulse move to the downside in the next 3 sessions will trigger a 'sell' signal. The 5 latest sessions were impulsive, this is rather unusual: either we are at the early stage of a major move or we are in a capitulation situation. But the rally is so extended on a short term basis that we believe a sell on news (after the ECB's decision) is likely.

 

steumodel20150121.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains above a strong horizontal resistance but recent action is not really convincing for a bull run. It seems we could be in a counter trend move.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150122.jpg

 

Looking at key indexes, we have roughly the same situation than in Europe: some indexes are close to their recent top while others remain in the middle of their recent trading range.

 

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150122.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150122.jpg

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150122.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150122.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150122.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index is testing its zero line. So, US markets are not out of the wood, recent action could have been a technical rebound.

 

stmodel20150121.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 21 janvier 2015 3 21 /01 /Jan /2015 09:33

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues to rally: everyone is buying like crazy before the ECB meeting. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a sell on the news this Thursday.  It is important to notice the market is unable to close above the pink horizontal resistance.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150121.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index closed above the key '34' level for the second consecutive session.  So, we will see if the ST model can generate a sell signal within the next 3 sessions.

 

steumodel20150120.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains very resilient: there is no sign of weakness at this stage.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150121.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Indexremains in negative territory and is very close to its zero line. It seems the US markets are also waiting for the ECB.

 

stmodel20150120.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 20 janvier 2015 2 20 /01 /Jan /2015 07:42

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index enjoyed another strong session on Monday and it is now right below a major resistance. If the market can move above this level, this will be a very good sign for the market.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150120.jpg

 

Looking at major European indexes, we can see the DAX is in record territory while the CAC and the Small200 are right below major resistance.

 

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150120.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartEUSMALL200_20150120.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150120.jpg

 

The SMI remains above its strong support area.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150120.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index reached the key '34' level. So, if the Swing and/or the Power Level decline at (or below) '2' in the next 3 sessions, the ST model will trigger a Sell signal.

 

steumodel20150119.PNG

 

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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