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27 mars 2015 5 27 /03 /mars /2015 07:29

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index was under heavy selling pressure in the morning but the market was able to bounce back after the US open and the close of the session, the decline was rather limited. If the market can't decline below yesterday intraday low by the end of next week, this will be bullish for the market.

It is also important to notice the EUR/USD had a wild day

26/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound

The Sigma Trend Index is right at '0', let's see what happens from here. The negative divergence between the Sigma Trend Index and the Sigma Whole Europe Index is still in place.

26/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound
26/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound

United States:

The situation was roughly the same than in Europe but the rebound was less impressive. It is important to notice the bounce back came around a major support area.

The DJ Transport remains an important index to track. A break of this support area would be bearish for the market.

26/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound
26/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound
Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

The Sigma Trend Index declined to '-18'

26/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound

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26 mars 2015 4 26 /03 /mars /2015 07:21

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index declined 1% on Wednesday. This can look a marginal decline but it can be meaningful in current euphoric mood.

Nevertheless, it is too early to draw any conclusion on European markets.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

The Sigma Trend Index is close to its zero line, let's see if it declined in negative territory in coming sessions.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index took a big hit on Wednesday. Looking at the size of this black candle, there is no doubt it was an impulsive decline. A New low from the DJT (in coming sessions) would be rather bearish.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

The Sigma Trend Index declined to '-16' and the Swing came in at '1' with a Power Level at '2'. No doubt this session did some damages to the market.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

There is no change in our trading book: we are still short on some European Index and long on the NDX.

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

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25 mars 2015 3 25 /03 /mars /2015 10:16

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index printed an inside day (lower high and higher low vs Monday). This could be the first signal of a consolidation to come.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

The Volatility of European Volatility continues to decline and we are now close to the lowest level on a 2years basis. This is something to monitor because this is another sign of complacency.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory and both the Swing and the Power Level were neutral on Tuesday.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was unable to move above its previous top and both the DJ transport and the DJ Utilities resumed their decline while the NDX and the MID were unable to move above their resistance. We must carefully monitor this situation.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

The Sigma Trend Index is now close to its zero line. Both the Swing and the Power Level were neutral at '3'.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

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24 mars 2015 2 24 /03 /mars /2015 10:50

Europe:

Europe remains in its asymptotic move but it is nearly impossible to time the pullback. For sure current move is too steep to stay on a medium term basis but we don't see any reversal sign at this stage.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

The volatility of the European Volatility sharply declined and this is another sign of complacency in the market.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

There is a major negative divergence between the Sigma Whole Europe Index and the Sigma Smart Money Index Europe (such as in 2007) but there is no double top at this stage. So, this is just a warning, something to monitor in coming weeks.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

The Sigma Trend Index declined from '41' to '20'. The Power Level came in at '2', triggering another 'sell' signal but we won't increase our short exposure at this stage; European markets are too strong at this stage.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

United States:

The double top pattern remains in place on the Sigma Whole Market Index. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the Mid Cap are below major resistances and the DJ Transport took a major hit. We will focus on those 3 indexes.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

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23 mars 2015 1 23 /03 /mars /2015 09:26

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index printed a new 52weeks high and recent strength is more and more looking like a one way move. This is a clear asymptotic move, the 'normal' pattern for a blow-off top.

It is interesting to notice that both the SMI and the IBEX were able to clear previous top and to move higher.

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

The Sigma Trend Index rose to '41' and both the Swing and the power level came in at '4', telling us Friday was an impulsive day.

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index is right on its previous top. Let's see what happens from here: double top or new top.

Nevertheless, it is very important to underline the huge divergence between indexes. Some are printing new highs (Mid Cap, Russell2000, Sox, ...) while other are not able to print new highs (SP500, NDX, DJT, DJU, ...).

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

The Sigma Trend Index rose to '19' but we are far from the key '34' level (required for a sell signal).

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

We were stopped on our short position on the IBEX: short @ 10989.9, stopped @ 11369.47 => - 379.57 pts (loss).

Once again, it is a difficult time for short positions...

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

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20 mars 2015 5 20 /03 /mars /2015 07:32

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index seems to be in consolidation but it is way too early to call for a top.

Nevertheless, as long as the IBEX is unable to print new highs, this is negative for European sentiment.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory and both the Swing and the Power Level are neutral at '3'.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

United States:

Following the Yellen effect, US markets were in consolidation on Thursday. The Sigma Whole Market Index is close to previous highs but there is no certainty it will print new highs.

Nevertheless with both the Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap400 in record territory, we consider the bias is to the upside.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

The Sigma Trend Index remains close to its zero line (but it is positive) so, the bull case is not a done deal.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

The ST model lowered its stop on the DAX. Other stops are unchanged

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: short at 10989.9 (stop @ 11369, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

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19 mars 2015 4 19 /03 /mars /2015 08:24

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index had a quiet session, waiting for the Fed's decision. Even if the US markets are enjoying a nice up leg, we are not sure we will have the same situation in Europe in coming sessions. Why? Because Europe seems to move in line with forex and we believe the Fed's decision will have a short term impact on the USD (weaker USD vs EUR). In this context, it would be possible that EU indexes feel the pressure.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

It is interesting to notice the SMI is back to its summit and the FTSE is close to previous highs.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

The Sigma Trend Index came in at '11' and other indicators were neutral at '3'.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a nice up leg thanks to Super Dovish (I mean J. Yellen).

It is important to notice that both the Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap400 printed new highs on Wednesday => we believe this is a bullish signal for US markets.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

The Sigma Trend Index jumped above its zero line. If it can stay in positive territory in coming sessions, this would be another bullish sign for the US equity market.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

The ST model lowered its stops on most European indexes.

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12292)

- IBEX: short at 10989.9 (stop @ 11369, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

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18 mars 2015 3 18 /03 /mars /2015 08:46

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index printed a big black candle on Tuesday. Interesting to notice this candle was a bearish engulfment.

Both the Sigma Smart Money Index Europe and the Sigma Trend Index continue to print negative divergences with the Sigma Whole Europe Index. This is a major warning signal.

18/03: Bearish engulfment in Europe, new sell signal. Fed will probably be dovish as usual
18/03: Bearish engulfment in Europe, new sell signal. Fed will probably be dovish as usual
18/03: Bearish engulfment in Europe, new sell signal. Fed will probably be dovish as usual

Both the Swing and the Power Level (PL) came in at '2'. As the Sigma Trend Index was at '34' on Monday, the ST model generated a fresh sell signal on European markets.

18/03: Bearish engulfment in Europe, new sell signal. Fed will probably be dovish as usual

Nevertheless, we only implemented this trade on some markets because we booked 3 consecutive stop loss and we have to manage our positions: this is the first time in 4 years we booked 3 consecutive stop loss but with the market in crazy mood (thanks to Super Mario) we must be careful with short positions (the crazy mood could last for some time).

So, we sold:

- 1 CAC at 5028.43

- 1 EuroStoxx at 3673.71

United States

The Sigma Whole Market Index continues its bounce back. It is interesting to notice the Russell 2000 is very close to print a new high. If it does, this could be a bullish sign for the whole market.

With the Fed's decision today, our feeling is clearly on the bullish side. We believe J.Yellen will keep the "patient" word in her statement: the strong dollar and falling energy prices are perfect arguments in order to postpone the first rate hike till 2016.

18/03: Bearish engulfment in Europe, new sell signal. Fed will probably be dovish as usual
18/03: Bearish engulfment in Europe, new sell signal. Fed will probably be dovish as usual

The Sigma Trend Index is testing its zero line. Everyone is waiting for J.Yellen and her next gift to the market.

18/03: Bearish engulfment in Europe, new sell signal. Fed will probably be dovish as usual

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5185, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3787, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12340)

- IBEX: short at 10989.9 (stop @ 11369, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

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17 mars 2015 2 17 /03 /mars /2015 08:13

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues its (nearly) vertical move. How far can we go? It is impossible to have a clear (and right) answer to this question but we must recognize that current situation becomes dangerous and highly unsustainable.

17/3: Rebound in place, what next?

The Sigma Trend Index reached, once again, the key '34' level and a sell signal could be generated in the next 3 sessions. If a new sell signal is generated, we will implement it on the CAC and the EuroStoxx. We won't implement it on the DAX because we want to limit our short exposure in current irrational markets.

17/3: Rebound in place, what next?

United States:

The expected rebound occured and we believe further upside is still possible. Don't forget we have the Fed on the agenda on Wednesday and those days are generally bullish: Have you ever heard J.Yellen talking the market on a hawkish tone?

17/3: Rebound in place, what next?

We still have a long position on the NDX at this stage, and we are looking for an exit point. Nevertheless, the Sigma Trend Index is still well below the key '34' level so, we keep our long NDX.

17/3: Rebound in place, what next?

Daily trading book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: stopped

- EuroStoxx50: stopped

- DAX: stopped

- IBEX: short at 10989.9 (stop @ 11315, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

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16 mars 2015 1 16 /03 /mars /2015 07:16

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues to rally and it is printing new highs day after day. At this stage there is no reversal sign, the market is clearly in an asymptotic move.

16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports

Most European indexes (quoted in euro) have the same pattern but the Ibex remains among the weakest ones.

16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports

The Sigma Trend Index remains above its zero line but the Sigma Smart Money Index is stil well below July's highs.

16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports

United States:

If the bounce back scenario remains valid in US, the market needs to rally now. It is important to keep the market above last week lows.

Even in a bear case scenario, we consider the uptrend won't give up without (at least) a failed test of previous high => we continue to believe a rally should occur.

16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports

The Sigma Trend Index remains below its zero line. The strong dollars is clearly weighting on US markets: large caps, more exposed to international revenue, will face difficult time in current environment.

16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports
16/03: Europe doesn't want to consolidate, US is testing some supports

Daily trading book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: stopped

- EuroStoxx50: stopped

- DAX: stopped

- IBEX: short at 10989.9 (stop @ 11315, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

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  • : Professionnel de la finance de marché depuis plus de 10ans, j'ai mis au point une série d'outils de trading me permettant de prendre et couper mes positions. Ici, j'écris un update quotidien sur la situation du CAC,DAX, Eurostoxx, SP500, Nasdaq100. Attention Les éléments repris dans ce blog représentent uniquement mon opinion personnelle et ne constituent en aucun cas une incitation au trading ou du conseil financier. Pour du conseil, consultez votre conseiller en placement
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