Vendredi 30 janvier 2015 5 30 /01 /Jan /2015 09:24

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe index continues its consolidation above the red horizontal. As long as the market remains above this level, there is no warning signal (from the chart).

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150130.jpg

 

Looking at key European indexes, we can notice a lot of divergence between the different markets. For sure recent forex action has some responsibilities in those divergence but this doesn't explain with the IBEX is so weak relative to other indexes. This is something to carefully monitor.

 

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150130.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index eased again but it remains above its zero line. So, there is no sign of trend reversal at this stage.

 

steumodel20150129.PNG

 

The ST lowered its stops on most European positions.

 

stestoxx20150129.PNG

stcac20150129.PNG

stibex20150129.PNG

 

United States

The Sigma Whole Market Index continues to struggle with its dotted ascending line. As long as it remains above this level, the situation remains 'ok' (no more than 'ok') but if it slides below this area, the situation could turn bearish.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150130.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index(STI) is, again, testing its zero line. There is a clear fight between bulls and bears, let's see what happens in coming sessions.

 

stmodel20140129.PNG

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10938, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 29 janvier 2015 4 29 /01 /Jan /2015 08:01

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues its pull back but we consider there is no real danger at this time. No danger, as long as the market is able to remain above the red horizontal resistance. If the market declines below this strong horizontal support, recent breakup would look like a false break.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150129.jpg

 

Looking at key European indexes, it is interesting to notice that while the DAX, EuroStoxx 50, Stoxx600, CAC, .... reached new highs in recent session, the IBEX, PSI, .... remain well below their 52 weeks highs. This means that tension between core Europe and periphery are not easing. So, I don't believe that the market is 'really' convinced by the outcome of the EU QE.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150129.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150129.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150129.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index sharply declined in the last two sessions: from '63' to '13'. Both the Swing and the Power Level were neutral at '3'.

 

steumodel20150128.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was under pressure on Wednesday. The index is now testing an important ascending trend line. If the market can't hold on this level, there is a major risk of acceleration to the downside.

 

US-Daily-Chart SWM 20150129

 

Looking at key US indexes, we can notice that most market leaders of this bull market (NDX, RUT) are now in the middle of their trading range. The new leaders are the dividend stocks: DJ Utilities. But even the DJU is now facing some strong resistance.

 

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150129.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150129.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150129.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index declined in negative territory. This is negative for the market because it is rolling back in negative territory after a first decline, a bounce back and a consolidation phase. So, current decline looks like a clean move, a new direction for the market.

 

stmodel20150128.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4763, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3469, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10938, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10861, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 28 janvier 2015 3 28 /01 /Jan /2015 09:01

We have just sold 1 IBEX at 10677.7 (unable to trade the IBEX and the PSI between 5.30 PM CET and 9.00 AM CET on my platform)

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Trade
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Mercredi 28 janvier 2015 3 28 /01 /Jan /2015 08:15

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index had a negative session on Tuesday. Nevertheless, as long as it remains above the red horizontal resistance, we can consider this as a normal consolidation after the huge run up of the 16 latest sessions (14up vs 2 down).

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150127-copie-1.jpg

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index slightly declined and both the Swing and the Power Level (PL) declined below 3 => The ST model generated a 'sell' signal on Europe.

 

steumodel20150127.PNG

 

stestoxx20150127.PNG

stcac20150127.PNG

stdax20150127.PNG

stibex20150127.PNG

 

As we were busy with customers yesterday, we opened our short positions this morning and we sold:

 

- 1 CAC @ 4659.35

- 1 DAX @ 10699.75

- 1 EUStoxx @ 3392.5

- still waiting for the opening of the IBEX's CFD

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was under heavy selling pressure following in line results but very bad guidance from both Microsoft and Caterpillar. Nevertheless, with the strong results from AAPL and YHOO (in after hours), US futures are jumping tonight and it will be very interesting to monitor if the gap at the open can resist to selling pressure or if it is closed during the first hours of the session.

Don't forget we have the FOMC on Wednesday and we continue to believe that J. Yellen will underline the strong usd and its possible implications on the US economy. By doing so, she will postpone rate hikes expectations. We believe it will have no rate hike in 2015. (we know this is not the consensus but this is our personal view).

 

US-Daily-Chart SWM 20150127-copie-1

 

The Sigma Trend Index is testing its zero line. The Swing came in at '1' and tells us the decline was highly impulsive.

 

stmodel20150127.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4768, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3479, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10927, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX:waiting for the open of the CFD

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5


Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 27 janvier 2015 2 27 /01 /Jan /2015 06:34

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues to climb, this market seems unstoppable. It seems Mr Draghi is THE master of short squeezes.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150127.jpg

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index remains above the key '34' level and so, it remains ready to generate a 'sell' signal. This is the 6th consecutive session with the STI above the key '34'level, the market booked 8 consecutive sessions of gains (+8% on this period). This kind of move is just unbelievable.

It is nearly sure the ST model will generate a 'sell' signal during this week, but looking at recent strength in the European market, we are not sure this signal will be a good one. Nevertheless, we will implement it when it occurs.

 

steumodel20150126.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains in the middle of its recent trading range. Maybe the market is waiting for J. Yellen. No doubt she could again surprise the market with another dovish statement.

 

US-Daily-Chart SWM 20150127

 

The Russell 2000 shows some sign of strength, this is good news for the broad market.

 

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150127.jpg

 

But the Nasdaq 100 remains unconvincing. So, let's wait for the FOMC meeting.

 

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150127.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains close to its zero line. It seems US market starts to feel the pain of the strong USD. This is a very good reason for J. Yellen to be dovish.

 

stmodel20150126.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Lundi 26 janvier 2015 1 26 /01 /Jan /2015 08:46

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continued its rally on Friday. Current move is impressive. We believe we should get a consolidation in coming sessions in order to retest the red horizontal resistance. If the market can remain above the red horizontal resistance, a new upleg is possible.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150126.jpg

 

Looking at key European Indexes, we can notice the Euro zone area is in a bull run while the FTSE and the SMI don't experience the same rally. It is clear that the weaker euro is a strong tailwind for the Eurozone area.

 

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150126.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150126.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index came in at '74' and the Swing came in at '5'. The market has been able to book 7 consecutive (positive) impulse session. The market is so overbought (on short term basis) that a 'sell' signal seems unavoidable.

 

  steumodel20150123.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was unable to hold its gain on Friday. At the end of the session, the market came under selling pressure. It is clear the strong USD weights on corporate profits and competitiveness. 

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150126.jpg

 

Looking at key US indexes we can notice they are not in the same situation than the European market: most of them are not close to their recent top. The DJ Utilities is the big exception and it is probably due to dividend yield hunting in this weak interest rates environment.

 

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150126.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150126.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index close the week above its zero line, this is a positive sign for the US equity market..

 

stmodel20150123.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

Side bet: 

 CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 23 janvier 2015 5 23 /01 /Jan /2015 10:09

Europe:

Tanks to the ECB, the Sigma Whole Europe Index was able to move and close above the key red horizontal resistance. This looks bullish on a technical basis unless this move is a false break/bull trap. 

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150122-copie-1.jpg

 

Looking at key European Indexes, we can notice a clear breakout on some of them.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150122-copie-1.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150122-copie-1.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150122.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150122-copie-1.jpg

 

The SMI remains under pressure due to the weakening euro but as long as it remains above the blue horizontal support, things remain under control.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150122.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index jumped to '69'. This level is unsustainable, current upleg is in a full impulse move for the 6 latest sessions. This kind of move is highly powerful. This could be the signal for a major brekout.

 

steumodel20150122.PNG

 

United States

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a strong session on Thursday. Like a junky, the market was feeling good with the new wave of liquidity coming from the ECB.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150123.jpg

 

Most US indexes are in a bounce back mode, but only few of them are close to their recent top.

 

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJT_20150123.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150123.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index moved in positive territory (at '4'). The Swing came in at '5' telling us the session was highly impulsive.

 

stmodel20150122.PNG

 

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EuroStoxx50: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped

 

Side bet: 

-   CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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