Mardi 29 juillet 2014
Looking at the chart of the Sigma Whole Market Index, we can notice a flat consolidation (in pink). In order to confirm the uptrend is alive, we need to move above this horizontal channel.
Looking at the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10yr T-Notes, we can notice a kind of distribution pattern. At this time this is just a point of attention, but we need to
monitor it because if the (red) uptrend channel is broken in coming weeks, this would mean the Bull Run started in Sept 2011 is over and this would (probably) lead to a major correction in
Looking at the chart of the EurosToxx50, we can count a clear 5 waves move to the downside (1-2-3-4-5) followed by a 2 waves move (a-b). We believe we need another upleg (c) in order to finish
the rebound (in abc). Then, the selling pressure should come back.
We can see a similar pattern on a lot of indexes:
The Sigma Trend Index is close to its zero line (at '-5'). It will be interesting to monitor if it can move back in positive territory.
There is no change in our positions:
Short Term Trading Book:
- SPX: long at 1978.44 (stop @ 1932, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3940.03 (stop @ 3835, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4348.16 (stop @ 4276, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3174.33 (stop @ 3128, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: long at 10511.80 (stop @ 10585, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
Medium Term Trading Book:
- No more medium term position at this stage.