Vendredi 24 octobre 2014 5 24 /10 /Oct /2014 08:32

We are on the road and the bandwith at the hotel is so low that we are unable to update our models.

We will try to fix it later.

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 23 octobre 2014 4 23 /10 /Oct /2014 08:09

The Sigma Whole Market index is very close to the pink horizontal resistance. As long as the market remains below this level, we consider the bounce back scenario is the one to favor (-> new decline to come). If the market can move above this level (pink horizontal resistance), the probability that the correction could be over would sharply increase.

 

SWM20141022.PNG

 

The CAC is now on a strong resistance and the NDX is testing its downtrend.

 

chartCAC20141022.PNG

chartNDX20141022.PNG

chartRUT20141022.PNG

The Swing was at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive. That was something else than a 'normal' consolidation.

 

stmodel20141022.PNG

 

The ST model uplifted most of its stops:

 

stspx20141022.PNG

stndx20141022.PNG

stcac20141022-copie-1.PNG

stdax20141022.PNG

stestox20141022-copie-1.PNG

stibex20141022.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1862, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3742, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4001.79(stop @ 3962, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 2929.54 (stop @ 2905, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8741 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 9975)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 22 octobre 2014 3 22 /10 /Oct /2014 09:03

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a powerful rally. The best day of the year gor US stocks! This is great, and we are happy because we are long.

 

SWM20141021.PNG

 

Nevertheless, it is important to notice that recent rebound looks like an 'abc' (= bounce back in a downtrend) and that most indexes are close or very close to strong resistances.

 

chartNDX20141021.PNG

chartRUT20141021.PNG

chartEstox20141021.PNG

chartDAX20141021.PNG

chartCAC20141021.PNG

 

The Sigma trend Index is well in positive territory and this is (also) god news. Now, it is important that it stays in positive for a couple of days. One day is not enough to underline a new trend.

The Swing came at '5' but looking at the size of the white candle (on the chart), we are not surprised it was an highly impulsive day.

 

stmodel20141021.PNG

 

The ST model sharply uplifted all its stops:

stspx20141021.PNG

stndx20141021.PNG

 

stEstox20141021.PNG

stCAC20141021.PNG

 

stdax20141021.PNG

stibex20141021.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1859, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3740, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4001.79(stop @ 3948, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 2929.54 (stop @ 2896, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8708 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 9906)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 21 octobre 2014 2 21 /10 /Oct /2014 09:19

When we have a look at the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10y T-Notes, we can clearly notice that the 3years uptrend was broken. This means the TINA effect (There Is No Alternative 'to equities') is over. Why? There are plenty of reasons: US dollars strength, geopolitical risk, earnings risk, risk of recession in Europe, ...

Anyway, whatever the reason is, the market is telling us that bonds are more attractive than equitties at this stage and this is something highly bearish for equities.

 

chartBDSvsEQ20141020.JPG

Looking at the Sigma Whole Market Index, we can see a clear bounce back from oversold territory but as long as we remain below the blue horizontal resistance, there is a risk to retest last week low. And if this low can't resist, there is a high probability that the next support will be the green horizontal resistance.

 

SWM20141020.JPG

 

The Sigma trend Index (STI) is right on its zero line. So, it is highly possible that recent bounce back was nothing else than a bounce back from highly oversold territory. It will be highly important to track if the STI can move (and remain) in positive territory in coming sessions.

The Swing was at '4', telling us the rebound remains rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20141020.PNG

 

The ST model uplifted its stops on both the NDX and the SPX:

 

stspx20141020.PNG

stndx20141020.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1840, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3705, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4001.79(stop @ 3927, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 2929.54 (stop @ 2883, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8707 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 9797)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Lundi 20 octobre 2014 1 20 /10 /Oct /2014 09:44

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a huge bounce back on Friday. Nevertheless, it is interesting to notice the rally was stopped by the first horizontal resistance. It wil be very important to see if the market can continue its rebound early next week and move at higher levels.

 

SWM20141017b.PNG

 

Most indexes remain in dangerous territory: we are close to major resistances, and a global bottom is not a 'done deal'.

 

chartNDX20141017.PNG

chartRUT20141017.PNG

chartEstox20141017.PNG

chartCAC20141017.PNG

chartDAX20141017.PNG

 

The Sigma Trend Index sharply bounced back, and the Swing jumped to '5', generating a 'new' buy signal. The ST model has been experiencing difficult times in recent weeks. This situation has always been the case when we were at turning points in the medium term trend. So, if this is (again) the case, this is not a good signal for the market (because it could underline we are rolling from an uptrend into a downtrend).

 

Don't forget the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10y T-Notes: the uptrend was broken

 

chartbdsvsEQ20141016

Nevetheless, the ST model generated a fresh buy signal and we implemented it. Why? Because on the long run the track record of this model is far beter than the one from our feeling.

 

stmodel20141017.PNG

 

 

stspx20141017.PNG

stNDX20141017.PNG

stestox20141017.PNG

stCAC20141017.PNG

stDAX20141017.PNG

stibex20141017.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1837, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3696, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4001.79(stop @ 3927, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 2929.54 (stop @ 2883, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8707 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 9797)

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 17 octobre 2014 5 17 /10 /Oct /2014 13:18

First of all, we want to show you the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10y T-Notes. On this chart, we can clearly notice the uptrend channel has been broken. So, the bull market in equities (relative to bonds) is over. According to us, this is a major sell signal.

 

chartbdsvsEQ20141016.JPG

The Sigma Whole Market Index sharply declined early in the session and recovered most of its losses at the end of the day.

Current market action is very wild, and it is nearly impossible to say if Tuesday's action was a (short term) capitualtion move or a bounce back in the downtrend.

 

SWM20141016-copie-1.PNG

 

The Sigma trend Index remains in oversold territory, and both the Swing and the Trend Level (TL) are telling us the session was neutral.

 

stmodel20141016.PNG

 

Our long position on the NDX has been stopped:

 

stopped at 3690.91 => 3690.91 - 3824.47 = -133.56 (loss)

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- no more position
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 16 octobre 2014 4 16 /10 /Oct /2014 09:35

The Sigma Whole Market Index sharply declined on Wednesday and found some support on the (light bue) hrizontal support. This 'hanging man' is a bullish pattern if it is confirmed the following day. So, to be followed...

If the light blue horizontal support can't hold, the next 'natural' support is the green horizontal line.

 

SWM20141015.PNG

 

The Sigma trend Index is once again in oversold territorybut other indicators are neutral.

 

stmodel20141015.PNG

 

Nearly all our positions were stopped (except for the NDX): (European ones were stopped during the US session)

- SPX stopped @ 1827.81 -> 1827.81 - 1882.29 = -54.48

- CAC stopped @ 3690.54 -> 3590.54 - 3824.47 = -233.93

- EStoxx stopped @ 2920.67 -> 2920.67 - 3003.48 = -82.81

- DAX stopped @ 8447.5 -> 8447.5 - 8828.25 = -380.75

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 3824.47(stop @ 3691, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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