Lundi 20 octobre 2014 1 20 /10 /Oct /2014 09:44

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a huge bounce back on Friday. Nevertheless, it is interesting to notice the rally was stopped by the first horizontal resistance. It wil be very important to see if the market can continue its rebound early next week and move at higher levels.

 

SWM20141017b.PNG

 

Most indexes remain in dangerous territory: we are close to major resistances, and a global bottom is not a 'done deal'.

 

chartNDX20141017.PNG

chartRUT20141017.PNG

chartEstox20141017.PNG

chartCAC20141017.PNG

chartDAX20141017.PNG

 

The Sigma Trend Index sharply bounced back, and the Swing jumped to '5', generating a 'new' buy signal. The ST model has been experiencing difficult times in recent weeks. This situation has always been the case when we were at turning points in the medium term trend. So, if this is (again) the case, this is not a good signal for the market (because it could underline we are rolling from an uptrend into a downtrend).

 

Don't forget the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10y T-Notes: the uptrend was broken

 

chartbdsvsEQ20141016

Nevetheless, the ST model generated a fresh buy signal and we implemented it. Why? Because on the long run the track record of this model is far beter than the one from our feeling.

 

stmodel20141017.PNG

 

 

stspx20141017.PNG

stNDX20141017.PNG

stestox20141017.PNG

stCAC20141017.PNG

stDAX20141017.PNG

stibex20141017.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1892.65 (stop @ 1837, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3828.03(stop @ 3696, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4001.79(stop @ 3927, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 2929.54 (stop @ 2883, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8769.25(stop @ 8707 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 9797)

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 17 octobre 2014 5 17 /10 /Oct /2014 13:18

First of all, we want to show you the relative performance between the S&P1500 and the US 10y T-Notes. On this chart, we can clearly notice the uptrend channel has been broken. So, the bull market in equities (relative to bonds) is over. According to us, this is a major sell signal.

 

chartbdsvsEQ20141016.JPG

The Sigma Whole Market Index sharply declined early in the session and recovered most of its losses at the end of the day.

Current market action is very wild, and it is nearly impossible to say if Tuesday's action was a (short term) capitualtion move or a bounce back in the downtrend.

 

SWM20141016-copie-1.PNG

 

The Sigma trend Index remains in oversold territory, and both the Swing and the Trend Level (TL) are telling us the session was neutral.

 

stmodel20141016.PNG

 

Our long position on the NDX has been stopped:

 

stopped at 3690.91 => 3690.91 - 3824.47 = -133.56 (loss)

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- no more position
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 16 octobre 2014 4 16 /10 /Oct /2014 09:35

The Sigma Whole Market Index sharply declined on Wednesday and found some support on the (light bue) hrizontal support. This 'hanging man' is a bullish pattern if it is confirmed the following day. So, to be followed...

If the light blue horizontal support can't hold, the next 'natural' support is the green horizontal line.

 

SWM20141015.PNG

 

The Sigma trend Index is once again in oversold territorybut other indicators are neutral.

 

stmodel20141015.PNG

 

Nearly all our positions were stopped (except for the NDX): (European ones were stopped during the US session)

- SPX stopped @ 1827.81 -> 1827.81 - 1882.29 = -54.48

- CAC stopped @ 3690.54 -> 3590.54 - 3824.47 = -233.93

- EStoxx stopped @ 2920.67 -> 2920.67 - 3003.48 = -82.81

- DAX stopped @ 8447.5 -> 8447.5 - 8828.25 = -380.75

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 3824.47(stop @ 3691, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 15 octobre 2014 3 15 /10 /Oct /2014 09:13

The Sigma Whole Market Index found some support on the blue horizontal ine and was able to bounce back.

 

SWM20141014b.PNG

 

By doing so, the Swing jumped to '4' and triggered a fresh buy signal.

 

stmodel20141014.PNG

 

We are no convinved by the signal, but we implemented it in order to be in line with our quant model:

 

stndx20141014.PNG

stspx20141014.PNG

stCAC20141014.PNG

stDAX20141014.PNG

stEstox20141014.PNG

stibex20141014.PNG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1882.29 (stop @ 1828, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3824.47(stop @ 3691, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4090.13 (stop @ 3961, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3003.48 (stop @ 2921, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 8828.25(stop @ 8550 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 9990)

 

 

Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 14 octobre 2014 2 14 /10 /Oct /2014 09:16

The Sigma Whole Market Index took another big hit on Monday. It is now on a major horizontal upport. It is key to keep this level or we van get another nasty slide.

 

SWM20141014.PNG

 

We can see the same situation on the Eurostoxx50.

 

chartEstox20141013.PNG

 

Nevertheless, some other key indexes have just broken their support, so the situation remains highly dangerous.

 

chartRUT20141013.PNG

chartDAX20141013.PNG

chartNDX20141013.PNG

chartCAC20141013.PNG

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains in highly oversold territory. And the Swing at '1' is telling us the decline is highly impulsive.

 

stmodel20141013.PNG

 

We remain out of this market at this stage, and we believe this market is highly dangerous:

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: stopped
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Lundi 13 octobre 2014 1 13 /10 /Oct /2014 10:00

The Sigma Whole Market Index declined below major supports, this is something very bearish.

 

SWM20141010.PNG

 

The same situation can be observed on key European and US indexes:

 

chartNDX20141010.PNG

chartRUT20141010.PNG

chartMID20141010.PNG

chartSC20141010.PNG

chartDAX20141010.PNG

chartCAC20141010.PNG

 

The Sigma Trend Index sharply declined. Both the Swing and the Power Level are telling us the decline was highly impulsive.

 

stmodel20141010.PNG

 

Our long positions were stopped:

 

- SPX stopped at 1918.81 -> 1918.81 - 1968.4 = -49.59

- NDX stopped at 3903.95 -> 3903.95 - 4029.64 = -125.69

- DAX stopped at 8909.67 -> 8909.67 - 9264.45= -354.78

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: stopped
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  stopped
- IBEX: stopped
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 10 octobre 2014 5 10 /10 /Oct /2014 07:00

The Sgima Whole Market Index lost its Wednesday's gain. We are once again close to the major horizontal support.

 

SWM20141009.PNG

 

Both the Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap400 closed at the low of the session. Those indexes are very close to print new lows.

 

chartRUT20141009.PNG

chartMID20141009.PNG

 

It is interesting to notice that the Sigma Smart Money Index sharply decined (blue line). This means that smart investors sharply reduced their exposure to the market.

 

SSMI20141009.PNG

 

Looking at some European indexes, we can notice we are still above last month's low.

 

chartCAC20141009.PNG

chartEstox20141009.PNG

 

The Sigma Trend Index fall back in negative territory and both the Swing and the Power Level are telling us we had an impulsive session.

 

stmodel20141009.PNG

 

There is no change in our positions at this stage:

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1968.4 (stop @ 1919, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 4029.64(stop @ 3904, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: stopped
- EStox: stopped
- DAX:  long at 9264.45(stop @ 8910 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: stopped
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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