Mardi 16 septembre 2014 2 16 /09 /Sep /2014 06:53

The Sigma Whole Market Index continues to slide. It is now well below the red horizontal support. It will be important to stay in the uptrend channel (close to pink support).

If the situation continues to deteriorate from here, there is a meaningful risk we have just printed a major top. Why? The market broke its uptrend in May (not), then it was able to rally and to print a marginal new high (could be a failed top). Moreover, this top was a weak momentum top because it was not confirmed by the Russell 2000, The Mid Cap 400 and the Samll Cap 600.

 

SWM20140915.JPG

 

Looking at the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq100 and the Mid Cap, we can notice those markets were under heavy pressure on Monday. Some are talking about an Alibaba effect (building cash in order to subscribe to the IPO). This is possible but there is no certainty this is the right explanation.

 

chartNDX20140915.JPG

chartRUT20140915.JPG

chartMID20140915.JPG

 

In Europe, the situation looks in a better shape: key indexes are still above horizontal supports. But it is important to bounce back from here or those markets will be under pressure.

 

chartCAC20140915.JPG

chartEstox20140915.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index sharply declined to '-24'. The Power Level (PL) was at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140915

 

There is no change in our position at this stage:

 

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Lundi 15 septembre 2014 1 15 /09 /Sep /2014 08:48

The Sigma Whole Market Index declined on Friday. The market is testing recent low. It would be better to stay above this level. If not, we are at risk of further weakness.

 

SWM20140912.JPG

 

The Sigma trend Index is now in negative territory, this is not a good sign. The swing came at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140912.JPG

 

There is no change in our trading book:

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Vendredi 12 septembre 2014 5 12 /09 /Sep /2014 08:55

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a low volatility day and was able to pursue its bounce back.

 

SWM20140911.JPG

 

It is interesting to notice that some key indexes were able to find some support and bounced back. As long as those supports hold on, this is positive for the market. It will be interesting to monitor if the market is able to print a new high in coming days.

 

chartMID20140911.JPG

chartESTOX20140911.JPG

chartCAC20140911.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory, other indicators are neutral at '3'.

 

stmodel20140911.JPG

 

There is no change in our trading book:

 

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Jeudi 11 septembre 2014 4 11 /09 /Sep /2014 08:41

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a positive session on Wednesday: the index bounced back from previous day but it remains below a major resistance. Recent decline looks like an 'abc' correction (at this stage) but it is way too early to draw any conclusion.

 

SWM20140910.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains close to its zero line. So, clouds remain above us...

 

stmodel20140910.JPG

 

There is no change in our positions:

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mercredi 10 septembre 2014 3 10 /09 /Sep /2014 08:47

The Sigma Whole Market Index is right on a major support. It is crucial to hold this level or the situation will probably deteriorate.

 

SWM20140909.JPG

Looking at other key indexes, it is clear that the EuroStoxx is in front of a major resistance and that some US indexes are showing more signs of weakness.

 

chartEstox20140909.JPG

chartRUT20140909.JPG

chartSC20140909.JPG

chartNDX20140909.JPG

 

It is also interesting to underline there is a major negative divergence between the Sigma Smart Money Index and the Sigma Whole Market Index. This is not good.

 

SSMI20140909.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index is close to its zero line, it is key to monitor if it can remain in positive territory or if it slides in negative territory.

The Swing was at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140909.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on both the DAX and the NDX:

 

stndx20140909.JPG

stdax20140909.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3840, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9446, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
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Mardi 9 septembre 2014 2 09 /09 /Sep /2014 09:54

The Sigma Whole MArket Index enjoyed a low volatile day but it was unable to close in positive territory. The market is struggling to stay above the (red horizontal) support. So for, so good...

 

SWM20140908.JPG

 

Nevertheless, looking at some European and US indexes, we can notice those indexes are close to major resistances or to their 52weeks high. So, it is very difficult to have a clear idea on the next move. Up or down? 50/50...

 

chartStoxx20140908.JPG

chartEstox20140908.JPG

chartDAX20140908.JPG

chartCAC20140908.JPG

chartMID20140908.JPG

chartSC20140908.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains above its zero line and other indicators are neutral at '3'. The market is very quiet (if not boring...)

 

stmodel20140908.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop level for the DAX:

 

stdax20140908.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3838, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9441, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator
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Lundi 8 septembre 2014 1 08 /09 /Sep /2014 07:45

The Sigma Whole Market Index bounced back on its red horizontal support and printed a white candle. This is good for market. Nevertheless, the general pattern remains the same: it seems the market is in a building top process.

 

SWM20140905.JPG

 

The Sigma Trend Index moved slightly up, it is now at '9'. The Trend Level (TL) was at '4', telling us the move was rather impulsive.

 

stmodel20140905.JPG

 

The ST model computed new stop levels on some positions:

 

stdax20140905.JPG

stestox20140905.JPG

stibex20140905.JPG

stcac20140905.JPG

 

Short Term Trading Book:
 

- SPX: long at 1936.12 (stop @ 1920, 3pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- NDX: long at 3894.96 (stop @ 3838, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: long at 4180.52 (stop @ 4337, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EStox: long at 3036.56 (stop @ 3165, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX:  long at 9184.25 (stop @ 9388, 10pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: no position at this stage (according to our model, stop would be at 10725)
Par sigmatradingoscillator - Publié dans : Market Analysis
Ecrire un commentaire / Write a comment - Voir les 0 commentaires

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