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1 avril 2015 3 01 /04 /avril /2015 09:29

Europe:

We can clearly notice that European Indexes are in a consolidation phase. It is interesting to notice that both the SMI and the FTSE have a more bearish pattern. This is something to track in coming sessions.

1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda

The Sigma Trend Index is once again testing its zero line. The Swing came in at '2', telling us the decline was rather impulsive.

1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda

United States:

The consolidation is still in place. We remain focus on the DJ transport.

1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda

The Sigma Trend Index declined in negative territory with a Swing at '2'.

1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda
1/4: The consolidation remains on the agenda

Daily Trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5148, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3768, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: stopped

- IBEX: stopped

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31 mars 2015 2 31 /03 /mars /2015 09:50

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues its bounce back but there is no new hih at this stage. So, the losing momentum process can take a while but we believe it is in place.

31/3: The bounce back continues, there is no change in our view

- The Sigma Trend Index moved back in positive territory, this is positive for the European market.

- The huge negative divergence between the Sigma Smart Money Index Europe and the Sigma Whole Europe index is still in place.

- The Volatility of European Volatility continues to decline and it is now very close to its lowest level in 2 years.

31/3: The bounce back continues, there is no change in our view
31/3: The bounce back continues, there is no change in our view
31/3: The bounce back continues, there is no change in our view

United States:

The situation is the same one than in Europe; the bounce back continues.

We remain focus on the DJ Transport because we need a move below the blue horizontal support on this index in order to turn more bearish on the whole US market.

31/3: The bounce back continues, there is no change in our view
31/3: The bounce back continues, there is no change in our view

The theoretical short on the DAX (because not implemented) was stopped at 11908 with a theoretical gain of 72points.

Daily Trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5148, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3768, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: stopped

- IBEX: stopped

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30 mars 2015 1 30 /03 /mars /2015 11:15

Europe:

The Europe markets enjoyed a nice bounce back at the end of last week but as long as European markets aren't able to print new highs, the consolidation scenario remains our central scenario. We believe we are in a distribution phase (losing some momentum) and a larger consolidation could take place in following weeks.

30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over

The Sigma Trend Index is right below its zero line. Both the Swing and the Power Level were neural on Friday (at '3').

30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market remains in a consolidation phase: stuck in a trading range delimited by the 2 red horizontal lines. We are waiting for the next breakout in order to detect the next major move.

We continue to believe the DJ transport is the most important US index to focus on at this stage.

30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over
30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over

The Sigma Trend Index remains below its zero line. Both the Swing and the Power Level were neutral on Friday.

30/3: Nice bounce back, we don't believe the correction is over

The ST model uplifted most of ts stops on European positions.

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5148, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3768, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 11908)

- IBEX: stopped

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27 mars 2015 5 27 /03 /mars /2015 07:29

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index was under heavy selling pressure in the morning but the market was able to bounce back after the US open and the close of the session, the decline was rather limited. If the market can't decline below yesterday intraday low by the end of next week, this will be bullish for the market.

It is also important to notice the EUR/USD had a wild day

27/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound

The Sigma Trend Index is right at '0', let's see what happens from here. The negative divergence between the Sigma Trend Index and the Sigma Whole Europe Index is still in place.

27/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound
27/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound

United States:

The situation was roughly the same than in Europe but the rebound was less impressive. It is important to notice the bounce back came around a major support area.

The DJ Transport remains an important index to track. A break of this support area would be bearish for the market.

27/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound
27/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound

The Sigma Trend Index declined to '-18'

27/03: Sharp intraday decline followed by a strong rebound
Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

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26 mars 2015 4 26 /03 /mars /2015 07:21

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index declined 1% on Wednesday. This can look a marginal decline but it can be meaningful in current euphoric mood.

Nevertheless, it is too early to draw any conclusion on European markets.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

The Sigma Trend Index is close to its zero line, let's see if it declined in negative territory in coming sessions.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index took a big hit on Wednesday. Looking at the size of this black candle, there is no doubt it was an impulsive decline. A New low from the DJT (in coming sessions) would be rather bearish.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

The Sigma Trend Index declined to '-16' and the Swing came in at '1' with a Power Level at '2'. No doubt this session did some damages to the market.

26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US
26/3: Impulsive decline in both Europe and US

There is no change in our trading book: we are still short on some European Index and long on the NDX.

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

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25 mars 2015 3 25 /03 /mars /2015 10:16

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index printed an inside day (lower high and higher low vs Monday). This could be the first signal of a consolidation to come.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

The Volatility of European Volatility continues to decline and we are now close to the lowest level on a 2years basis. This is something to monitor because this is another sign of complacency.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory and both the Swing and the Power Level were neutral on Tuesday.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was unable to move above its previous top and both the DJ transport and the DJ Utilities resumed their decline while the NDX and the MID were unable to move above their resistance. We must carefully monitor this situation.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

The Sigma Trend Index is now close to its zero line. Both the Swing and the Power Level were neutral at '3'.

25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum
25/3: It seems both Europe and US are losing some momentum

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24 mars 2015 2 24 /03 /mars /2015 10:50

Europe:

Europe remains in its asymptotic move but it is nearly impossible to time the pullback. For sure current move is too steep to stay on a medium term basis but we don't see any reversal sign at this stage.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

The volatility of the European Volatility sharply declined and this is another sign of complacency in the market.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

There is a major negative divergence between the Sigma Whole Europe Index and the Sigma Smart Money Index Europe (such as in 2007) but there is no double top at this stage. So, this is just a warning, something to monitor in coming weeks.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

The Sigma Trend Index declined from '41' to '20'. The Power Level came in at '2', triggering another 'sell' signal but we won't increase our short exposure at this stage; European markets are too strong at this stage.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT

United States:

The double top pattern remains in place on the Sigma Whole Market Index. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the Mid Cap are below major resistances and the DJ Transport took a major hit. We will focus on those 3 indexes.

24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
24/3: Europe is crazy, we focus on the NDX,the Mid Cap and the DJT
Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

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23 mars 2015 1 23 /03 /mars /2015 09:26

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index printed a new 52weeks high and recent strength is more and more looking like a one way move. This is a clear asymptotic move, the 'normal' pattern for a blow-off top.

It is interesting to notice that both the SMI and the IBEX were able to clear previous top and to move higher.

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

The Sigma Trend Index rose to '41' and both the Swing and the power level came in at '4', telling us Friday was an impulsive day.

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index is right on its previous top. Let's see what happens from here: double top or new top.

Nevertheless, it is very important to underline the huge divergence between indexes. Some are printing new highs (Mid Cap, Russell2000, Sox, ...) while other are not able to print new highs (SP500, NDX, DJT, DJU, ...).

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?
23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

The Sigma Trend Index rose to '19' but we are far from the key '34' level (required for a sell signal).

23/03: A clear asymptotic move in Europe, double top or new top in US?

We were stopped on our short position on the IBEX: short @ 10989.9, stopped @ 11369.47 => - 379.57 pts (loss).

Once again, it is a difficult time for short positions...

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: stopped

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20 mars 2015 5 20 /03 /mars /2015 07:32

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index seems to be in consolidation but it is way too early to call for a top.

Nevertheless, as long as the IBEX is unable to print new highs, this is negative for European sentiment.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory and both the Swing and the Power Level are neutral at '3'.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

United States:

Following the Yellen effect, US markets were in consolidation on Thursday. The Sigma Whole Market Index is close to previous highs but there is no certainty it will print new highs.

Nevertheless with both the Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap400 in record territory, we consider the bias is to the upside.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

The Sigma Trend Index remains close to its zero line (but it is positive) so, the bull case is not a done deal.

20/3: Europe and US in consolidation
20/3: Europe and US in consolidation

The ST model lowered its stop on the DAX. Other stops are unchanged

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12279)

- IBEX: short at 10989.9 (stop @ 11369, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

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19 mars 2015 4 19 /03 /mars /2015 08:24

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index had a quiet session, waiting for the Fed's decision. Even if the US markets are enjoying a nice up leg, we are not sure we will have the same situation in Europe in coming sessions. Why? Because Europe seems to move in line with forex and we believe the Fed's decision will have a short term impact on the USD (weaker USD vs EUR). In this context, it would be possible that EU indexes feel the pressure.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

It is interesting to notice the SMI is back to its summit and the FTSE is close to previous highs.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

The Sigma Trend Index came in at '11' and other indicators were neutral at '3'.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a nice up leg thanks to Super Dovish (I mean J. Yellen).

It is important to notice that both the Russell 2000 and the S&P Mid Cap400 printed new highs on Wednesday => we believe this is a bullish signal for US markets.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish
19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

The Sigma Trend Index jumped above its zero line. If it can stay in positive territory in coming sessions, this would be another bullish sign for the US equity market.

19/3: I was convinced the Fed would be dovish

The ST model lowered its stops on most European indexes.

Daily trading Book:

- SPX: stopped

- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4201, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- CAC: short at 5028.43 (stop @ 5182, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

- EuroStoxx50: short at 3673.71 (stop @ 3782, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread) stopped

- DAX: no position, model short (stop @ 12292)

- IBEX: short at 10989.9 (stop @ 11369, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

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